That`s the way it works anyway in many instances . That is, the chance of
dying today is unaffected by any notion that you "burned up" chances
yesterday. Or put another way, the chance of throwing a "six" on the next
throw has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that you haven`t thrown one
in the last hundred throws.
Unless of course you actually died yesterday. Game over!!
Duncan McFadyean
-----Original Message-----
From: Fergus Kyle <fkyle@bigwave.ca>
Date: Tuesday, August 31, 1999 5:02 AM
Subject: Failure stats.....
>Cheers!
> I have been away for a few days and came back to a chain of accident
>rate stats that frighten me. Had I known the chances of a dramatic end
>to my flying were so threatening, I wouldn't have started. When I was a
>kid, my dad said "your chance of making 70 years is 50% if you stand
>still. Start walking and you cut your life expectancy in half".
>....I've averaged 13 miles an hour over the last sixty years - a third
>of it while asleep.....
> THEN it dawned on me! I have already spent far to much time in the air!
>Since thoughtlessly refusing to die in the past, I have simply slipped
>closer to my Maker statistically! The solution was simple.... I shall
>just deny all that past flying!; forget nearly everything I ever
>experienced!; ignore the past and start again! That means on average
>I've got a better chance than some foregoing aviator with 100 hours! Boy
>will he be sorry when he clocks his 500,000th hour - he's on the brink
>of the abyss, and I'll still have 100 hours to go!
> I better speed up this build! That 100 hours in the Europa is going to
>be sweet as pie!
>Happy Landings!
>
>
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